Summary

Steven Novella provides a realist’s guide to the most significant advancements in technology and science that we might see in the future. He debunks various fallacies about the future such as linear mindset and extrapolating current trends. He delves into the latest developments in genetics, BMIs, robotics, quantum computing, AI, materials, AR/VR, 3D printing, and more. He also discusses the possibilities and limitations of future technologies including fusion, nanotechnology, synthetic life, space elevators, laser propulsion, and more. Finally, he explores science fiction technology including cold fusion, FTL travel, artificial gravity, and transporters.

“who we are is a manifestation of our brains’ [electrical signals] and that can be changed”

Key Takeaways

• Switching costs: underestimate degree to which existing technologies persist
• Genetic modification: disorder vs enhancement is a blurry line
  • Eliminate 90% junk DNA for efficiency
• Stem cells still 20+ years out
• 2014 Pew of 1.8k experts: split on whether robotics+AI → permanent job displacement
• Quantum computers are error prone (checked by classical computers)
• 2014: Turing test passed (33% > 30% convinced, 5 min convos)
• 3 (4) laws of robotics:
  • Protect itself, unless ↓
  • Obey human commands, unless ↓
  • Never harm an individual, unless ↓
  • Concerns for humanity as whole
• Fully programmable matter: nano bots

Notes

1: An introduction to the future

1-3: Fallacies of the future

• Linear mindset: overestimate short term progress, underestimate long term progress
• Switching costs: underestimate degree to which existing technologies persist
  • Convenience is not the only factor
• Assuming current people, priorities and extrapolating current trends, tech
• Disruption / black swan events
• Law of accelerating returns: only have one data point

2: Today’s technology

4: Genetic manipulation

• “Genetic modification” is an arbitrary term
• GMO vs pesticides
• Disorder vs enhancement is a blurry line
• Eliminate 90% junk DNA for efficiency

5: Stem cells

• Immortal, flexible, different types
• Still 20+ years out
• Low hanging fruit: skin, heart

6: Brain machine interfaces

• Leverage neuroplasticity for BMI
• Sensory feedback required (trick brain)
• Augment humans (eg. input, personality)
• Challenges self: “who we are is a manifestation of our brains’ [electrical signals] and that can be changed”
• The Matrix (fully immersive VR)

7: Robotics

• 2014 Pew of 1.8k experts: split on whether robotics+AI → permanent job displacement

8: Quantum computing

• Superposition + entanglement
• Each “bit” is a probably curve
• Use classical computers for error checking
• Fragility: qubits need to be isolated
• Currently: 0.5% error rate (need to reduce)

9: AI

• 2014: Turing test passed
  • 33% > 30% convinced, 5 min convos
• ANI essentially replicating parts of brain
• AGI: intelligence explosion
• 3 (4) laws of robotics:
  • Protect itself, unless ↓
  • Obey human commands, unless ↓
  • Never harm an individual, unless ↓
  • Concerns for humanity as whole
• Fermi paradox

10: Transportation

• MaaS: Mobility as a service
• Energy density of transport: no flying cars
• Mach 0.85 best for fuel efficiency
• Not much in the near future

11: Materials

• Aluminum: black swan discovery
• 2D material: single-atom thick sheet
• Meta materials: have properties not found in nature
• Smart materials: have properties that are dependent on external environment
• Fully programmable matter: nano bots

12: AR/VR

• Metaverse
• NR: full immersion, completely seamless
• ↑ solution to the Fermi paradox

13: Wearables

• Fashion vs function
• Second skin

14: Additive manufacturing

• Subtractive, joining, treating, coating, molding / forming
• 3D printing: hyper-personalization
• Value in the design, not manufacturing

15: Powering our future

• Thinking / ideas are chief limiting resource
• Assuming 3% increase in energy per year, type one civilization in 100 to 200 years
• Electromagnetism and motors
• Electric grid and energy storage

3: Future technologies

16: Fusion

• Chemical → fission → fusion (20Mx)
• Limiting factors: practical considerations, economic viability
• Large, centralized, base load

17: Mature nanotechnology

• Nanotech not proven beyond biology
• “Manufacturing with atoms”
• Nano manufacturing, medicine
• Planck tech: space-time itself

18: Synthetic life

• Artificial genome
• New base pairs, amino acids

19: Room temp superconductors

• Superconductor: no energy lost
• Type one and type two
• High temperature superconductors: 77 k
• Requires genuine breakthrough
• 2021: Internet is 2% worldwide energy use
  • 5-9% all info, comm tech
• Energy savings, miniaturization, new electronic applications

20: Space elevators

• High tensile strength, low mass
• Carbon nanotubes: need to mass produce at length (currently 1 m)
• NASA: $60,000/kg
• Space X 2020: $1,500/kg
• Space elevator: $200-$500/kg
• May never be worth the trouble

4: The future of space travel

21: Advanced rockets

• Chemical rockets not feasible for interstellar
• Nuclear-thermal propulsion
• Not much near-term hope

22: Laser propulsion

• Solar sail / laser propulsion
• Ramjet: scoop hydrogen for fusion: 0.12C
• Antimatter engine
• Black hole drive: Hawking radiation
• Cosmic rays: issue for biological life
• Need to worry about collisions beyond 0.1C

23: Space settlements

• Biggest factors: radiation and gravity

24: Terraforming

• 0.0618 atmospheres: lowest pressure
• O2, CO2: plants for self-sustaining cycle

5: Science fiction technology

25: Cold fusion and free energy

• Cold fusion seems unlikely
• Free energy

26: FTL travel

• Worm holes
• Warp drives
• Most likely: changing quantum probabilities

27: Artificial gravity / antigravity

• Graviton → possible anti-graviton

28: Transporters etc.

• Matter → energy → matter
• Sonic tractor beams: not in vacuum