Summary

Given the law of accelerating returns of technological progress spurred on by advances in genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics (GNR), we are approaching a singularity: an inevitable event horizon where machines become more intelligent than humans beyond comprehension with our current intelligence. Technological progress is a double-edged sword, at once posing unbound potential for wealth and prosperity as well as an existential risk if not aligned with humanity’s values and goals. We must agree upon steps to ensure a positive transformation for humanity.

The purpose of life and evolution is to reverse entropy and move towards ever greater order, complexity, elegance, knowledge, intelligence, beauty, etc. The universe is just a belief (not fact) since our consciousness is subjective experience. Thus, this continued drive is akin to religious divine creation in reverse: the universe will “wake up” as it becomes one conscious intelligence and seeks to understand itself.

“Saturating [the universe]’s matter and energy with our intelligence is our ultimate fate”

“Evolution moves toward greater complexity, greater elegance, greater knowledge, greater intelligence, greater beauty, greater creativity, and greater levels of more subtle attributes such as love.”

Key Takeaways

• Science and chemistry → self-replicating organisms → brains → technology → human technology + intelligence → universe wakes up
• Singularity: event horizon we cannot look past with our current intelligence
  • Driving force: GNR: genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics (AI)
• Church-Turing thesis: strong version: computer can do any brain computation
• Anthropic principle: our universe has suspiciously perfect universal constants (40+), but a given since we can consciously observe / measure in the first place

Related Podcasts

- [Reasons for slowing progress](https://overcast.fm/+1LedXgLoE)
    - Burden of knowledge: harder to reach frontier, thus more specialization, siloing
    - Paradox of choice: over abundance of research, clustering around popular articles
    - Bullshit paper hypothesis: incentives in academia promote many small papers
    - Big bad science: more coordination required, leading to inefficiencies
    - Low hanging fruit: All the easy, monumental discoveries already found

Notes

1: The six epochs

• Brain is massively parallel, CPUs are massively sequential
• Von Neumann: exponential pace of technology leading to singularity
• Doubling paradigm shift rate every decade
• Almost everybody maintains a linear view of progress, misinterpreting forward trends
• ↑ overestimate what we can do in the short term, underestimate the long term
• The 6 epochs:
  • Science and chemistry: big bang
    • Universal constants allowing for “evolution of information”
  • Self-replicating organisms
  • Brains
  • Technology
  • Human technology + intelligence
  • Universe wakes up
• “The first ultra-intelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make” - Ervin Goode
• Information technology doubling every year
• Singularity: event horizon we cannot look past with our current intelligence

2: The law of accelerating returns

• Law of accelerating returns: a theory for technology evolution
• Information: order that fits a purpose
• Acceleration of acceleration: multiple accelerating factors compounding
  • Eg. chip density, power availability, algorithmic efficiency, # of chips
• Stacked S curves with paradigm shifts
• Rate of adopting new paradigms cut in half every decade
• Price performance more than exponential growth (3 → 2 → 1 year doubling)
• Brain: electrochemical, digital controlled, analog computational process
• Theory of universe as cellular automata computer
• ↑ Wolfram: simple programs can produce complex results (class 4 automata, rule 110)
• ↑ not sophisticated enough to explain evolution to current intelligence, complexity

3: Human brain’s computational capacity

• After Moore’s law: molecular, 3D, nanotubes

• Changing / transferring electron spin requires no energy

• Eye performs 10 million edge, motion detection operations / sec = 1K MIPS

• Brain estimates: 10^14 - 10^15 IPS / CPS

• Upper bound: 10^19 CPS to emulate brain

• 10^5 (100k) “chunks” of knowledge for masters in fields

• Estimated 10^13 bits of functional memory

• Reversible computing: not erasing data after each calculation, running calculation backwards after, thus generating no heat

• 2080: 10^42 CPS laptops, equivalent to whole human civilization / 10 microseconds

• Maximum for 1kg mass: 1050 CPS

  42-10

4: Reverse engineering the human brain

• Inefficiency in perfect neuronal simulation / replication of 1k-1m times
• Perception involves series of layers of understanding (A Thousand Brains)
• Brain imaging: holographic (3D lasers), nano bot scanning from inside
• ↑ entry through blood, blood brain barrier
• Nano bot scanning in 2020s
• Neurons reach new dendrites out, pruning as most useful are kept
• Neurons: chaotic interplay before signaling a decision
• Brain structure, uploading

5: Genetics, nanotechnology, robotics (GNR)

• DNA after removing redundancy, compressing: 30-100 MB
• Will be able to reverse aging in 10s-20s
• Gene therapy
• 7 factors of aging (see 9 factors now)
• Cloning of humans, tissue / organs etc.
• Replicator: universal computer + universal constructor (arranging atoms)
• Nano bots could drive cells, maintaining proper function better than biology does
• Drexeler proposal
• Nano bots effectively require self-replication for scale of change need to consider how to do this safely
• Nanotechnology is a GPT
• Worldwide energy use: 3x10^13 W (2030)
• Metabolic output of all humans: 10^12 W
  • Vegetation on earth: 10^14 W
• Hipsothermal limit: 10^15 W
• Nanotechnology or strong AI first?
• When AI accomplishes a task, do we think more of AI, less of humans, or less of task itself? Often last option
• AI capabilities as water level rising

6: Impact of GNR

• Can control the nutrients we digest and discard the rest, no fat gain
• Artificial blood
• Brain augmentation on neuronal level
• “A few hundred MB/sec” total brain input
• “if war is the father of invention, then play is its mother”
• Full immersion virtual reality: indistinguishable from reality by late 2020s
• Drake equation, Fermi paradox
• Radio → type II civilization / singularity in only hundreds of years, thus unpredictable
• Max computation in our vicinity: 10^80 CPS
  • Reached in early 2100s
• Quantum entanglement to expand faster than the speed of light
  • Can’t transfer data, just shared randomness (encryption)
• Engineered wormholes to take advantage of space’s curvature
• ^ given feasibility of these, we are likely “in the lead”
• Anthropic principle: our universe has suspiciously perfect universal constants (40+), but a given since we can consciously observe / measure in the first place
• String theory: multiverse or universes with different constants (reproduction through black holes)
• Intelligent life and black holes need similar conditions, thus ↑
• Intelligence as computational efficiency achieved
  • Human is 1/2 way between rock and optimal
  • Black hole theoretically greatest density of computation
• Max computation in universe: 1080-10120 CPS
• “Saturating [the universe]’s matter and energy with our intelligence is our ultimate fate”

7: The ### singularity religion

• Singularitarian: understands singularity and effect on their own life
• Live long enough to live forever
• Purpose of life: create and appreciate ever greater knowledge - to move toward ever greater order (often complexity)
• Anticipate the ability of technologies incoming and work them into our plans
• Post-humanism
• Can’t neglect present-day issues: technology is a double edged sword
• Not creating a species (biological construct) but rather upending altogether
• “The principal role of religion has been to rationalize death”
  • Argument: to explain the unexplainable, shared value system, power to the people
• Principles of new singularity:
  • Respect for human consciousness (golden rule)
  • Knowledge: information that has meaning for conscious entities
• No objective test to determine consciousness since by definition it is subjective experience
• We are merely a special, temporal pattern
  • Cells are fully replaced monthly
• Pattern, order, reversing entropy
• Turning matter into intelligent, transcendent
• “The singularity will ultimately infuse the universe with spirit”
• “Evolution moves toward greater complexity, greater elegance, greater knowledge, greater intelligence, greater beauty, greater creativity, and greater levels of more subtle attributes such as love.”
• God is described as infinite version of this ^
• Thus, a spiritual undertaking
• Universe is just a belief (not fact) since we are subjective experience
• Epoch 6: universe will “wake up”, become one intelligence
  • Religious divine creation in reverse

8: The deeply intertwined promise and peril of GNR

• Internet gives people more access to knowledge, power, malice than ever before
• Carbon is optimal building block due to atomic structure, would be used for nano bots as well
• Existential risks: argument to shut down the advance of technology
• Size of tech, robotics etc. linear dimensions decreasing 2x per 5 years

9: Response to critics

• Software development productivity 2x every 6 years
• Church-Turing thesis: strong version: computer can do any brain computation
• Consciousness is an emergent trait, making it even harder to identify
• Spindle cells: unique to primates, possible source of complex thought