Summary

Serial entrepreneur Peter Diamandis outlines ten technologies currently on exponential growth curves and explains possible scenarios in which the acceleration of acceleration leads to their convergence in the form of breakthrough innovations across eight frontline industries. He focuses in on human longevity in particular, listing the nine factors of aging and explaining the quest for longevity escape velocity. Finally, Diamandis makes a plea for humanity to operate on longer timescales past our own lifespans and consider the imminent threat of climate change as well as encouraging the awareness of the five great migrations.

Key Takeaways

• Convergence: Wave of applying the internet to everything, now applying AI to everything, etc. (find next field)
• Know the 10 technologies currently on exponential growth curves and study them
• Acceleration of acceleration: Technology allows for compounding speed of innovation
  • More funding, discovery of talent, globalization + urbanization, business models, human lifespan

10 exponential technologies

• Quantum computing
• Artificial intelligence (AI)
• Networks (5G)
• Sensors + IOT + big data
• Robotics + drones
• Virtual / augmented reality (VR / AR)
• 3D printing + biology
• Blockchain
• Material sciences + nanotechnology
• Biotechnology + gene editing

8 frontline industries

• Shopping
• Advertising
• Entertainment
• Education
• Healthcare
• Longevity
• Insurance + finance + real estate
• Food

5 great migrations

• Climate migration
• Urban migration
• Tech / VR migration
• Cosmic migration
• Migration to the collective (dataism, meta-intelligence)

9 factors of aging

• Genomic instability: mutations
• Telomere attrition: cells stop replicating
• Epigenetic alteration: environment changes gene expression
• Loss of proteostasis: buildup of old proteins, no garbage collection
• Nutrient sensing goes awry: fat not properly utilized → diabetes
• Mitochondrial disfunction: free radicals
• Cellular senescence: cells that don’t replicate or die, “zombie cells” lead to inflammation
• Stem cell exhaustion: 10k times decrease, organ repair loss
• Altered intercellular communications: don’t communicate pathogens etc.

Notes

1: The power of convergence

1: Convergence

• Convergence: realization and utilization of a new technology in greater context
• New tech: deceptive → disruptive phase
• Humans evolved for local and linear, world is now global and exponential
• Future where cars no longer economically viable in relation to autonomous vehicles, flying cars, Hyperloop, rockets

2: Exponential tech I

• “Every time an exponential technology reaches the end of its usefulness another arises to take its place”
• Eg. 3D boards, specialized chips, quantum
• Rose’s law: number of qubits in quantum processors doubles every year
• Network speed and accessibility (5G)
• Sensors, IOT, and big data
• Drones

3: Exponential tech II

• AR/VR
• Space
• 3D printing (+ biology)
• Blockchain
  • Smart object: linking NFTs to real-world objects
• Material science and nanotechnology
• Gene editing: CRISPR, stem cell therapy
  • Half of top 32k genetic diseases are a single base pair swap (easy fix)

4: Acceleration of acceleration

• Study: search engine saves 15 minutes per query vs library
• Acceleration of acceleration: Technology allows for compounding speed of innovation
• Funding is at all time highs
  • Crowdsourcing
  • VC, SoftBank vision fund
• Better discoverability of talent
• Brain computer interfaces
• Globalization: 2x size of cities → 15% increase in wealth, income, and innovation
• New business models
• Extended healthy human lifespan

2: The rebirth of everything

5: Shopping

• All major economic paradigm shifts share communication, energy, mobility advances
• Voice, Google Duplex to decrease friction

6: Advertising

• Spacial web / AR / visual search bring new levels of targeted ads
• Invasive hyper-personalization (eg speech synthesis, deepfakes) can take advantage of brain’s function to deceive into objective
• Ads won’t be needed eventually as personalized AI selects for us

7: Entertainment

• Shift in who’s making content, what kind of content, and where content is experienced
• Passive → active / individualized media
• Immersive content: VR, hologram, sensory
• Mood analysis → recommendations
• Brain computer interface (BCI) can simulate reality directly as brain experiences it

8: Education

• Technology access to all
• VR + AI

9: Healthcare

• Organ replacement
• Genome sequencing
  • 1-of-1 medicine, gene drive
• Surgical robots
• Molecular engineering, AlphaFold

10: Longevity

• 9 factors of aging:
  • Genomic instability: mutations
  • Telomere attrition: cells stop replicating
  • Epigenetic alteration: environment changes gene expression
  • Loss of proteostasis: buildup of old proteins, no garbage collection
  • Nutrient sensing goes awry: fat not properly utilized → diabetes
  • Mitochondrial disfunction: free radicals
  • Cellular senescence: cells that don’t replicate or die, “zombie cells” lead to inflammation
  • Stem cell exhaustion: 10k times decrease, organ repair loss
  • Altered intercellular communications: don’t communicate pathogens etc.
• Longevity escape velocity: increase lifespan by >1 year per year passed = live forever
• NMM → NAD: DNA repair (1g / day)

11: Insurance, finance, real estate

• Insurance value decreasing by 60% by 2040 as autonomous vehicles arrive
• Driverless cars can offer built-in insurance
• Lowest-risk invariably pay for highest-risk
• Crowdsurance: low-risk opt out of system into crowdfunding, industry unsustainable
• Finance: removal of middleman, banks
• AI-driven VR real estate platforms
• Floating cities

12: Food

• Average US meal travels 1.5-2.5k miles
• Vertical farms, stem cell meat
• 1/4 available land mass for farm animals
• GMOs

3: The faster future

13: Threats and solutions

• Climate change:
  • Energy generation: cheaper renewables are happening
  • Energy storage: battery tech (lithium ion, flow batteries, physical storage)
  • Green transportation: EVs
• Biodiversity and ecosystem services
• Economic risks: tech unemployment
  • Tech has added 2.6 jobs for every one it has destroyed
• Need to operate on longer timescales past our own lifespans

14: The five great migrations

• Migration: 70-75% increase in parents
• Climate migration
• Urban relocation
  • 123 largest cities: 13% of global population, 1/3 of economic output
• Tech / VR migration
• Cosmic migration
• Migration to the collective:
  • Meta intelligence: BCIs, hive mind
  • Cells → body → culture etc.