Summary

Neil Howe outlines a theory of generational cycles in American history. History moves in four-stage cycles of 80-100 years driven by a recurring pattern of crisis and renewal. Different generations play different roles in each turning.

Key Takeaways

• Four turning cycle: (80-100 years) growth, maturation, entropy, destruction
  • Characterized by cultural, political moods → people’s behavior, interactions
• Generational archetypes: heroes, artists, prophets, and nomads
  • each archetype plays a distinct role in the cycle of history
• Linear society vs cyclical society

Notes

1: Introduction

• WWII 2/10 → now 6/10 US citizens view themselves as very important people
• “Individually focused yet collectively adrift”
• Turning: shift in how we feel about ourselves, culture, nation, and the future
  • Cycle of four two-decade turnings
• Saeculum: average human lifespan, also ↑
• Four turnings:
  • Growth: Upbeat, ↑ institutions, ↓ individualism
  • Maturation: Awakening, new values regime attacks
  • Entropy: Unraveling, ↑ individualism, ↓ institutions
  • Destruction: Crisis, secular upheaval, replacement
• “The fourth turning is history’s great discontinuity. It begins one epoch and ends another.”
• Linear society: belief in human progress
  • Versus chaos, cyclical societies
• Generation: all people born over the span of a phase of life (of four phases) who share a collective common location in history
• Four generational archetypes in US:
  • Prophet: born during a high
  • Nomad: born during an awakening
  • Hero: born during an unraveling
  • Artist: born during a crisis

2: Generational archetypes

• Great events shape generations’ behavior
• Stories involving heroes + prophets are more grand, nomad + artist more personal
• Cycles of protecting children
• Growth: spring, builds, converges, promise
• Maturation: summer, play, euphoria
• Entropy: fall, unraveling, consume, diverge
• Crisis: winter, focus, struggle, sacrifice
• Like stocks or market trends, not certain destiny but indicative and predictable
• Technology tailors itself to the national mood, eg. decentralization, privacy etc.

3: First turning (’46-’64)

• Crisis results in generational unity
• War not required, but often accompanies turnings
• “Total stability is beyond the reach of any human system”
• Fears of collapsing economy and birth rates after WWII led to new deal
• Hi Public cooperation, low personal fulfillment
• Protected children, ambition, cooperation + integration
• The establishment: public power as public good (trust in big gov’t)
• GIs more educated, successful, credentialed, patriarchal
• Child boomers had sheltered, secure family

4: Second turning (’64-’84)

• Consciousness revolution
• The great awakening
• Let off the gas peddle, predicted future of consumption rather than production
• In touch with internal desires
• “Durable confidence in the American way of life”
• Stagflation: (70s) ↓ inflation-adjusted income still not recovered from
• Inner yearnings surged, outer discipline decayed with end of the establishment
• Generation gap: boomer revolt against GIs
• GIs owned gov’t, boomers owned culture
• Erosion of nuclear family, patriarchy

5: Third turning (’84-’05, estimated)

• Can be most enjoyable turning in cycle due to self-discovery, happiness seeking
• Culture wars: division over what the American way of life is (culture etc.)
• Economy of scarcity, psychology of abundance, pessimism
• Decreasing gov’t trust, newly individualistic
• Boomer social altruism, religiosity
• Boomers more content with work, making less money than previous generations
• Emphasis on millennial children’s safety
• Celebrating unity rather than individuality

6: Fourth turning

• Starts with a catalyst leading to regeneracy
• Climax: leads to revolution, new order
  • Triumph or tragedy
• Lays out a detailed picture of how the future fourth turning will unravel
• Reduction in world trade, return to big gov’t and fundamentals, etc.
• All problems combine into one

7: After the fourth turning

• Crisis in 2020, new first turning in 2026
• Vivid description of generations, new order
• Destructive polarization
• Decadent culture → fascism
• Lots of “could” and “might”

8: Advice for the fourth turning

• Be respected and reliable
• Prediction that internet will be ruled by big corporations with lots of cooperation
• Tend to think in terms of straight line progress, not accounting for society’s deep rooted cycles