Summary

Future shock is the gap between accelerating change and the limited rate of human response. Superindustrialism multiplies transience across things, places, people, organizations, and ideas while novelty and over-choice intensify. The result is overstimulation: sensory, cognitive, and decisional demands outrun our adaptive capacity, producing stress, denial, and breakdown.

Survival requires conscious adaptation rather than freezing the past or blindly accelerating the future. Build personal and social change regulators; redesign education around learning**,** relating, and choosing; tame technology through life testing and attention to delayed externalities; lengthen institutional time horizons; and practice anticipatory democracy. The task is to shape change so human beings and institutions can absorb it.

“There must be balance between environmental change and the limited rate of human response.”

“The problem is whether man can survive freedom.”

“When a whole system is composed of a number of subsystems, the one that tends to dominate is the one that’s least stable.”

Key Takeaways

Notes

Introduction

• Purpose of book: come to terms with the future, cope with personal + social change
• Puts forward a new theory of adaptation
• Cultural lag: different rates of change / adaptation in sectors of society
• “There must be balance between environmental change and the limited rate of human response”
• Future Shock: grows out of the increasing lag between the two ↑

1: The Death of Permanence

1: The 800th lifetime

• Accelerating progress*
• Superindustrialism
• Transience

2: The exelarative test

• Most people find change so threatening they attempt to deny its existence
• Social, cultural processes are speeding up too
• Manufacturing, technology, transportation, adoption + diffusion, computers
• Knowledge as fuel: eg. books, research papers
• More attention shifting
• Limits of human + instructional adaptability

3: The pace of life

• Some people (eg. Silicon Valley) prefer faster pace of life, are living in the future
• Different cultures have different paces of life
• Durational expectancy: learned expectations for how long things take
• Can’t freeze expectations, must adapt to accelerative thrust
• Fabric of social experience: man’s relationship over time with:
  • Things: man made objects
  • Places
  • People
  • Organizations
  • Ideas
• Transience: the rate at which relations to ↑ turn over

2: Transience

4: Things: the throwaway society

• Disposable products
• Paper clothing
• Cheaper to replace than repair
• Products get significantly better
  • Even included buildings
• Avoiding commitment
• Temporary classrooms, buildings
• Modularism
• Rental-ism
• Having → doing + being (free, flexible)
• Planned → rapid obsolescence
• Brand reshuffling
• Fads

5: Places: the new nomads

• Never in history has distance meant less
• 30x more travel since 1914
• International mobility
• Brain drain
• Hitchhiking (digital nomad)
• Loss of commitment / non-involvement in community

6: People: the modular man

• Travel / city → transient relationships
• Functional relationships
• Long, medium, short term relationships
• Serial careers
• Knowledge > experience
• Rising job turnover
• “Rent-a-person” (gig work)
• Top factor for success: untied to past
• Due to widening breadth of hobbies, it takes 1M people to find 10 friends
• What is the ultimate transience of relationships? (social media)

7: Organizations: the coming ad-hocracy

• Large orgs are changing way more quickly
• Reorganization must be a constant process
• Project management
• ↑ non-routine work
• More lateral (vs vertical) communication
• More flat than hierarchical
• Death of bureaucracy
• Loyalty to profession, not organization
• Agency
• Resurgence in entrepreneurship
• Company man → associate man

8: Information: the kinetic age

• Parasocial relationships
• Faster ascent, descent of celebrityhood
• Accelerating global fight for attention
• Rate of new knowledge is accelerating
• Even things like child rearing best practices are constantly changing
• Books becoming more transient
• Richer information (newspapers)
• Ads competing for attention
• 3x+ vocabulary turnover
• Transience of art

3: Novelty

9: The scientific trajectory

• Crisis of capitalism → industrial society itself
• “The problem is whether man can survive freedom”
• Man moving into the sea (😂)
• Climate control
• Biological machines
• Genetic cloning
• Artificial birth
• Designer babies, genetic arms race
• Cyborgs
• Health IoT
• AI, robots
• Denial of change
• Novelty ratio

10: The experience makers

• Goods → services → quality of life
• Non-utilitarian / psychological factors of product (eg. cake mix + egg)
• Functionality vs quality
• Experiential production
• “Joyous new interpersonal experiences”
• Simulation
• “Experimental gambling”

11: The fractured family

• Communes
• “Men raising children”
• Parallel development theory of love
• “Serial marriage”
• Focus: novelty of experience
• People are growing up faster

4: Diversity

12: The origins of over-choice

• More choice in modernity
• The paradox of choice
• Specialization of everything
• Democratization of media, communication
• No more mass media, culture, etc.

13: A surfeit of subcults

• More social enclaves
• Eg. surfing
• “Age category ghettos”
• Hippies → skinheads*

14: A diversity of lifestyles

• Increased value turnover
• “A cracked consensus”
• Choosing a “life style model”
• Cognitive dissonance: avoiding data counterfactual to beliefs / preferences
• Life style is a “super decision”: policy that narrows range of alternatives
• Serial selves

5: The limits of adaptability

15: Future Shock - physical

• Future shock: the response to overstimulation
• Higher life change index → more sickness
• Stress / adaptive reactions → adrenaline, lowered sexual response
• Quite simply, more societal change → more stress, illness etc.

16: Future Shock - physiological

• Adaptive breakdown: PTSD, culture shock
• Overstimulation: 1) sensory, 2) cognitive, 3) decisional
• Need sweet spot of stimulation
• Human channel capacity
• Routine creates space for creativity
• “The super simplifier”
• “Blindly stepping up the rate of change, the level of novelty, and the extent of choice”

6: Strategies for survival

17: Coping with tomorrow

• Risk of worsening pessimism
• Need to design “personal and social change regulators”
• New institutional, organizational forms
• Must experiment widely
• Direct coping ↓
• Sensory shielding: eg. closing a door
• Stability zone: can refuse certain trends, sources of stimulation
• Can try and forecast rate of change and make decisions in the present accordingly
• Situational grouping: support groups for people going thru same life transitions
• Crisis counseling
• Eg. halfway houses
• “Enclaves of the past” eg. Amish
• Need elements of consistency, eg. holidays

18: Education in the future

• Schools are industrial, bureaucratic
• Must focus on the present and increasingly the future, not the past
• Must learn to make repeated, probabilistic, increasingly long range assumptions about the future
• Education council to provide direction
• More homeschooling
• Current industrial schools don’t teach adaptive skills (fixed structure)
• Zero basis curriculum (eg. remove Spanish)
  • Currently based on inertia
• Data vs skills
• More diversification in study (data)
  • Even “contingency curriculum”
• Skills: 3 crucial new skills:
  • Learning: instructing how to learn, unlearn, and re-learn
  • Relating:
  • Choosing: help people define and test their values
• Must spend more time projecting oneself into the future
• Need a “heritage to the future”
• Courses on the future
• “Create an education that creates curiosity”

19: Taming technology

• Danger of “milking technology for immediate economic advantage”
• Reckless attempts to halt and advance technology
• No one is in control of technology or knows where it’s going (dangerous)
• AI agents, bioengineering
• Externalities of tech are delayed and unpredictable
• Must consider tech’s effects from a social, cultural, psychological environment
• “Life testing” (vs market testing) new products with customers
• Have to regulate tech
• “Much responsibility should be delegated to industry itself” (decentralized)

20: The strategy of social futurism

• Downsides of technocratic planning:
  • Econocentric
  • Reflects time bias of industrialism
  • Based on hierarchy (more in need of instant feedback)
• Results of loss of control:
  • Revulsion against intelligence (reversion to pre-scientific, nostalgia)
  • Now-ness (no planning)
• Need firms investing beyond economic incentives
• Need social indicators, not just GDP
• Time horizons must be lengthened
• Need more futurists with vision
• Need “utopia factories” (fiction)

Anticipatory democracy

• Must open the system further, bringing in minority voices
• Grassroots becomes town halls of the future
• Heading towards breakdown of political representation
• Today, unconscious adaptation is no longer adequate

“When a whole system is composed of a number of subsystems, the one that tends to dominate is the one that’s least stable”