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Energy and Civilization cover

Energy and Civilization

Vaclav Smil•2017

  1. Chappy's Book Notes•332 books

Energy and Civilization

Vaclav Smil•2017

Length
20h 9m•~568 pages
Read
Jun 13th - 16th '23
Applied ScienceMacroeconomicsHistory (Pre-WWII)History (Post-WWII)
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The summary and key takeaways below are auto-generated. I ran an AI pass based strictly on my handwritten notes for this book. I haven't done my own pass over them yet.

I read a book once and take handwritten notes as I go, then leave them alone. Weeks or months later I come back and write the key points and summary from those notes.

The delay is on purpose. Having to rebuild a book out of my own notes does far more for my recall than a second read-through would.

This one has only gotten as far as the AI pass. I'll come back and redo the takeaways and summary myself soon!

Summary

Human civilization is fundamentally a story of energy conversion — from muscle to fire to fossil fuels, each transition enabling 15-50x increases in energy use within two generations. The costs of lighting dropped 99.99% since 1800, transportation 80-98%, and electricity 97-98%. Energy use and GDP growth are tightly correlated, but the relationship is decoupling — the US uses 25% less energy than 1980 while producing far more. Cities are civilization's energy concentrators: double the population yields 30% GDP per capita growth. The theme throughout: slow advancement punctuated by transformative energy transitions, now threatened by climate change and dependence on high energy systems that are hard to revert.

Key Takeaways

  • Each major transition (muscle → fire → fossil fuels) enabled order-of-magnitude increases in two generations
  • Global efficiency doubled from 20% (1900) to 50% (2015); yearly energy supply growth slowed from 11% to 3.5%
  • Energy density spans enormous range: rockets at 0.001 g/W to nuclear power's extreme concentration
  • Lighting: 99.99% cheaper since 1800; transportation: 80-98%; electricity: 97-98%
  • Electricity is only 4-5% of disposable income; 100x energy to produce a car vs a phone
  • 2014: 62% less crude oil needed per dollar of GDP vs 1970 — US makes more on gas than OPEC
  • 2x population → 30% GDP per capita growth; 550 million-person cities by 2015
  • Modern cities: 15-150 W/m² vs historical 5-30 W/m²; power plants: 1,000-10,000 W/m²
  • Urbanization: China 55%, USA 75%+, some countries 90% — the trend is universal
  • USA: 25% drop in energy use since 1980; 1950-1973 was the golden age of correlated energy-GDP growth
  • Increased energy use is now largely discretionary — rise of leisure economy
  • England workforce shifted from 24% muscle jobs (1871) to 8% (2011); care jobs went from 1% to 12%
  • Climate change: CO2 (60%+), methane from livestock (20%), land use change (10%)
  • Restriction of options (hard to revert), environmental degradation, concentrated control and weaponization
  • Culture and creativity are not coupled with energy use — more energy doesn't mean better civilization

Notes

1: Energy and Society

  • Energy is a universal currency
  • Law of maximum energy
  • Energy: flows, stores, and control
  • Joule: force of 1 newton over 1 meter
  • 1 calorie = 4.2 joules
  • 1 watt = 1 joule per second
  • Photosynthesis: 0.5% efficient
  • Wood as fuel: need forest of 100x+ size
  • Energy intensity of material production
  • Candles: 0.01% efficient
  • LEDs: 15% efficient
  • Cycle gas turbine plants: 60% efficient
  • Human labor is ~20% efficient

2: Energy in prehistory

  • Bipedalism: 75% more efficient
    • Freed hands, mouth
  • Fire for cooking: 2-10% efficient
  • Nomadic grazing

3: Traditional farming

  • Agriculture
  • Grains, cereals
  • Animal labor, irrigation and fertilization, greater variety of crops (rotation)
  • Horse: 500-850 watts (1HP = 750)
  • Horses lock legs, sleep standing
  • Most animals: 10% more energy standing
  • More meat, crop rotation
  • Fertilizer: 70x return on energy
  • 15-40 → 160x return on 1800s Dutch farms
  • 20x farming efficiency in 19th century
  • Agricultural involution: ↓ quality, diversity
  • Famines
  • Maximize leisure → wealth, productivity

4: Pre-industrial prime movers and fuel

  • Force multiplication, technical innovation
  • Mechanical advantage
  • Humans: 75-125 watts
  • Water, windmills, biomass
  • Usain Bolt: 3.5 HP
  • Arm swinging ↑ running economy by 3%
  • Roads, bikes only in late 1800s
  • Sails, steam engines, canals
  • Walls, columns, beams, and arches
  • Egyptian pyramid: 2.5 terra joules
  • Metallurgy: bronze, brass, iron

5: Fossil fuels, primary electricity, renewables

  • Coal: 8% of carbon, fossil fuels: 0.01%
  • 1700s coal mining
  • Industrial Revolution: 15x energy in 200 yrs
  • Humans, horses: 1000g/W
  • 1900 steam engine: 60g/W
  • Crude oil: late 1800s
  • First car: 1880s Mercedes / Maybach
  • Internal combustion engine
  • Early 1900s: first flight
  • Diesel: 2x efficiency, 15% better by weight
  • Edison’s commercialization of electricity
  • AC/DC electric
  • Three notable trends:
    • 20x fossil carbons 1900-2015
    • ↑ due to technical advancements
    • Secular shift to higher quality fuels
  • Failure of nuclear
  • Rockets: 0.001 g/W

6: Fossil-fueled civilization

  • Global efficiency: 1900: 20%, 2015: 50%
  • Yearly increase in energy supply:
    • 1900-1935: 11%
    • 1935-1970s: 9%+
    • 1970s-2000: 3.5%
  • Fertilizer synthesis: 1% global energy
    • Supplies 40% of all nutritional value
  • England work force:
    • 1871: 24% muscle jobs, 1% care
    • 2011: 8% muscle jobs, 12% care
  • Mass production of cars, planes
  • Communication, transistors, internet, email
  • 100x energy to produce car vs phone
  • Phone consumes 3% of embodied energy
  • Internet: 10% of world’s electricity (2020)
  • Electricity decoupled from economic value
  • 2014: 62% less crude oil / dollar vs 1970
  • US makes more on gas then OPEC
  • 1950-1973 was golden age for US GDP
  • ↑ correlation b/w energy use, GDP growth
  • USA: 25% drop in energy use since 1980
  • 50%+ in cities
  • Historical cities: 5-30 W/m^2
  • Modern cities: 15-150 W/m^2
  • Power plants: 1,000-10,000 W/m^2
  • 2015: 550 million-person cities
  • City: 2x population→ 30% GDP/c growth
  • China: 55% cities, USA: 75%+, others: 90%
  • Increased energy use is discretionary
  • Concentrated control of energy flows
  • Weaponization of energy flows (oil)
  • Arrow = 100j, 9/11: 3.5 Gj, Czar: 290 Tj
  • Titanium: 450Mj/kg
  • War is energy intensive
  • 9/11: 500k → 93 / 500 / 1k billion dollars lost
  • Climate change sources:
    • CO2 emissions: 60%+
    • Land use change: 10% (deforestation)
    • Methane emissions: 20% (livestock)

7: Energy in world history

  • Higher energy use for:
    • Increased food harvests
    • More and greater variety of materials
    • Produce more, more diverse goods
    • Higher mobility
    • Create access to more information
  • Theme of slow advancement
  • 15-50x energy use in 2 generations
  • Electricity cost reduced by 97-98%
  • Transportation cost reduced by 80-98%
  • Lighting cost reduced by 99.99% vs 1800
  • Electricity: 4-5% of disposable income
  • General centralization of industries
  • Rise of leisure economy
  • Issues with dependence on high energy use:
    • Restriction of options: hard to revert
    • Degradation of the environment
  • Fewer producers, more sellers
  • Culture, creatively not coupled with energy