Summary

Bold maps linear → exponential thinking through the 6 Ds of exponentials: digitalization, deception, disruption, demonetization, dematerialization, and democratization. IoT, infinite computing, AI, robotics, and synthetic biology give small teams the tools to pursue world-changing goals.

Going big requires 10x thinking, rapid iteration, passion + purpose, and super-credibility. Crowdsourcing, crowdfunding, community building, and incentive competitions separate ideas + capital from execution, gather talent and resources, and turn ambitious goals into experiments at scale.

“The best way to predict the future is to create it yourself”

“Fail early, fail often, fail forward”

“The world’s most valuable resource is a passionate and persistent mind”

Key Takeaways

Notes

1: Bold technology

1: Linear → exponential thinking

• 6 Ds of exponentials:
  1. Digitalization
  2. Deception
  3. Disruption
  4. Demonetization
  5. Dematerialization: eg. smartphones
  6. Democratization
• S&P 500 lifespan: 67 → 15 years
• Linear vs exponential orgs

2: Democratization of power to change the world

• Key: simple + elegant UI
• Democratization of manufacturing
  • 3D printing

3: Five to change the world

• IoT (networks + sensors)
• Infinite computing
  • Cloud computing
• AI
• Robotics
• Synthetic biology

2: Bold mindset

4: Climbing mount bold

• Skunkworks
• Set big goals
• Lean: iterate fast
• Money → autonomy, mastery, purpose
• Take bigger risks (think 10x)
• Build an experimental ecosystem
• Rules:
  1. Focus on the user
  2. Share everything
  3. Look for ideas everywhere
  4. Think big, start small
  5. Iterate rapidly
  6. Spark with imagination, fuel with data
  7. Be a platform
  8. Have a mission that matters
• 17 triggers of flow: (focus)
  • 3 environmental:
    • High consequences: risk
    • Rich environment: novelty, complexity, unpredictability
    • Deep embodiment: pay attention
  • 3 psychological:
    • Clear goals
    • Immediate feedback
    • Challenge / skills ratio
  • 10 social: (group flow)
    • Serious concentration
    • Shared, clear goals
    • Good communication
    • Equal participation
    • Element of risk
    • Familiarity: shared knowledge base
    • Blending egos
    • Sense of content: autonomy, mastery
    • Close listening
    • Always say “yes, and”: additive (eg improv)
  • 1 creative:
    • Lateral thinking: novel stimuli + pattern recognition
  • Immediate feedback

5: Secrets of going big

• Super-credibility: getting big names with an ambitious goal to bolster credibility
  • For goals greater than your current credibility to achieve

1. Familiarity matters: recruit people who’ve already seen you succeed
2. Slow down and build credibility: eg. host a conference; execute
3. Create sub-goals: incremental → moonshot

• Principles (create your own)
  • “The best way to predict the future is to create it yourself”
  • “When faced without a challenge, make one”
  • “No simply means begin one level higher”
  • “When given a choice, take both”
  • “The ratio of something to nothing is infinite”
  • “An expert is someone who can tell you exactly how something can’t be done”
  • “If anything can go wrong, fix it”
  • “Multiple projects lead to multiple successes”
  • “Do it by the book, but be the author”
  • “When forced to compromise, ask for more”
  • “If you can’t win, change the rules”
  • “Can’t change the rules? Then ignore them”
  • “Perfection is not optional”
  • “Don’t walk when you can run”
  • “When in doubt, think”
  • “Patience is a virtue, but persistence to the point of success is a blessing”
  • “Squeaky wheel gets replaced”
  • “The faster you move, the slower times passes, the longer you live”
  • “You get what you incentivize”
  • “If you think it’s impossible, then it is - for you”
  • “The day before something is a breakthrough, it’s a crazy idea”
  • “If it’s easy, it would’ve been done already”
  • “Without a target, you’ll miss it every time”
  • “Fail early, fail often, fail forward”
  • “The world’s most valuable resource is a passionate and persistent mind”
  • “Bureaucracy is an obstacle conquered with persistence, confidence, and a bulldozer”

6: Billionaire wisdom - thinking at scale

1. Risk taking + risk mitigation
2. Rapid iteration + ceaseless experimentation
3. Passion + purpose
4. Long-term thinking
5. Customer-centric thinking
6. Probabilistic thinking
7. Rationally optimistic thinking
8. Reliance on first principles (fundamental truths)

3: The bold crowd

7: Crowdsourcing

• Huge rise in people joining the internet
• Separate ideas + capital from execution
• Both macro + micro tasks

8: Crowdfunding

• $15B → $300+ marketplace for crowdfunding in coming years
• Donation, debt, equity, reward/inventive (presale)
• JOBS act (equity crowdfunding)
• Steps:
  1. Set target $, duration
  2. Set rewards, incentives, stretch goals
  3. Build perfect team: celebrity / face, campaign manager, expert, graphic design lead, tech manager, PR manager, super-connector
  4. Sharpen your ax
  5. Planning, materials, resources
  6. Tell a meaningful story, use the right words
  7. Create a viral video: shareability + humanization
  8. Build your audience: affiliates, advocates, activists (workers)
     • Planetary vanguard example*
  9. Supercut of the launch, early engagement, media outreach
  10. Week-by-week execution plan; engage engage engage
  11. Make data driven decisions

9: Building community

• Niches
• 9 stages of community building:
  • Identity: what identity is it reinforcing for people
    • Belonging, support network, influence, curiosity + ideas
  • Designing community portal
  • Community building resources
  • Early days
  • Creating community content
    1. Preview / future
    2. News (general + member)
    3. Interview members
    4. Advice
    5. Guest
  • Engagement: social proof
    • Leaderboard, meetup
    • Be a connector
  • Managing your community
  • Driving growth
    • Evangelism / testimonials
    • Gamification / competition
  • Monetization
    • Transparency + authenticity

10: Incentive competitions

• Encourage meritocratic competition
• The smartest people work for someone else
• Why prizes / incentives
  • Attracts non-traditional capital (sponsored prize)
  • Cost efficient: only pay winner
  • Crowdsourcing genius
  • Increasing publicity
  • Overcoming existing constraints
  • Launching an industry
  • Financial leverage
  • Creation of market demand
  • Attracting new, cross-disciplinary expertise
  • Driving regulatory reform
  • Inspiration, hope, intelligent risk taking
• When prizes?
  • Know goal, but not how to get there
  • Large crowd
  • Small team can solve challenge
  • Flexible timeline, types of solutions, and who might win
  • You’re flexible for who owns IP
• Motivation:
  • Recognition
  • Money
  • Frustration with status quo
• 15 steps to do a prize*
  • Telegenic win condition
• Moral leaders for the exponential age