Summary

Abundance argues that America has lost its ability to build and innovate at scale, despite having the technology and resources to solve major challenges. Adversarial legalism, environmental regulations, and bureaucratic complexity have created a system where "trying to do more ultimately means achieving less." They propose solutions including reforming science funding, reducing the burden of knowledge and paperwork requirements, and shifting from push to pull funding through mechanisms like advance market commitments. The book concludes by identifying an emerging abundance order that could transcend both the New Deal order ('30s-'70s) and neoliberal order ('70s-'10s), as external threats and internal crises converge to make possible a new kind of politics focused on building and deploying solutions at scale.

"To have the future we want, we have to build and invent more of what we need."

Key Takeaways

• Slowing change of physical world: 1895 → 1925 vs 1995 → 2025
• Paradox: cities are becoming more important, even as cost of long-distance connection keeps falling
• Environmentalism → anti-growth
  • False dichotomy of climate action or economic growth
  • The climate crisis demands a liberalism that builds, not writes laws and moves money
• Construction productivity is less today than in 1950 (vs 290% GDP/C, 900% manufacturing)
• Adversarial legalism: government by lawsuit + government as a source of issues
  • "The internet is a frontier of last resort" – not over-regulated like high speed rail
  • The government is a plural posing as a singular
• Federal science spending: responsible for 25% of productivity growth in US since '50
• Burden of knowledge: the unsolved problems are typically harder than the solved ones
• Meta-science: study innovation, run experiments (eg. reducing paperwork overhead)
  • Science paperwork requires up to 40% of total research time
  • 0 → 1 introduces the possibility of change, but 1 → 1 billion is how the world actually changes
• Advance market commitment: a promise to buy # in advance
• Political order: constellations extending beyond a single election cycle, hidden points of consensus
• New deal order ('30s-'70s): US gov't must take an active role in managing the economy, protecting workers
• Neoliberal order ('70s-'10s): Focus on the individual
• External threats, internal crises are converging, and making possible a new kind of politics

Notes

Introduction

• “To have the future we want, we have to build and invent more of what we need”
• Slowing change of physical world
  • Eg. 1895 → 1925 vs 1995 → 2025
• Lost faith in optimism of future
• Technology comes with social change

1: Grow

• End of American expansion → Great Depression (frontier vs cities)
• Paradox: cities are becoming more important, even as cost of long-distance connection keeps falling
• Can’t build trust without nearness
• Homelessness is a housing problem → policy choice
• Homes as primary source of wealthy → Nimby-ism
• Environmentalism → anti-growth
• Regulation → environmental impact reports → stunted housing development

2: Build

• False dichotomy of climate action or economic growth
• Solar will be effectively free in places by 2030
• The climate crisis demands a liberalism that builds, not writes laws and moves money
• California high speed rail disaster*
• Construction productivity is less today than in 1950 (vs 290% GDP/C, 900% manufacturing)
  • Why? Uncertain but definitely tons more bureaucracy
• Complex societies reward those who can navigate complexity
• “The internet is a frontier of last resort” - not over-regulated like high speed rail
• Democracy by lawsuit + government as a source of issues
• Adversarial legalism: ↑
• Need a change in political culture

3: Govern

• The government is a plural posing as a singular
• Too many goals in regulation: “there’s some margin at which trying to do more ultimately means achieving less”
• What is needed is a change in ideas:
  • Right: embracing the legitimacy of a large and complex welfare and regulatory state, recognizing the vital role of public servants
  • Left: reconsidering the decentralized, legalistic model of governance, reducing veto power of activist groups, shifting focus of power from effective checks to effective execution

4: Invent

• We need a political movement that takes invention more seriously
• Federal science spending: responsible for 25% of productivity growth in US since ‘50
• American science has been one biased against taking bold risks
• Burden of knowledge: the unsolved problems are typically harder than the solved ones
• Artificial limiting of immigration of high-skilled labor for R&D
• Too many scientists are all looking at the same few trees
• Science paperwork requirements: up to 40% of time
• Peer review system penalizes novel research
• DARPA, 1/10th budget of NIH but punches well above its weight
• Hire the smartest people, give them space to pursue their most ambitious ideas together
• Meta-science: study innovation
• ↑ run experiments, eg. reducing the paperwork overhead

5: Deploy

• 0 → 1 introduces the possibility of change, but 1 → 1 billion is how the world actually changes
• The hard part is often scaling
• Gov’t should have a vision for the future, make possible the impossible (private)
• Push funding → pull funding: rewards for innovation
  • Advance market commitment: a promise to buy # in advance
• We need more warp speeds, eg. heart disease, climate change

Conclusion: toward abundance

• Political order: constellations extending beyond a single election cycle, hidden points of consensus
• New deal order (‘30s-‘70s): US gov’t must take an active role in managing the economy, protecting workers
• Neoliberal order (‘70s-‘10s): Focus on the individual
• Now: socialist left, populist authoritarian right
• External threats, internal crises are converging, and making possible a new kind of politics
• Republicans, Elon embracing scarcity
• Degrowther movement*
• Abundance order